This Week in Silly Arguments: Fire That Successful Guy!

Apparently on the radio yesterday the phrase “make or break year” was tossed out in regards to Mike Shanahan's job security with the Redskins for the upcoming 2013 season.

This is obviously a patently ridiculous argument, but it got under my skin* for some reason and I feel compelled to respond.

Here’s why this is so stupid:

1. There is no shortage of things to complain about with this team. RGII’s knee, Orakpo coming back, keeping the offense fresh as league defenses adapt to the pistol, and a secondary filled with DeAngelo Hall clones, to name a few. The job security of Shanahan and his staff shouldn’t even register on the list.
2. The Redskins won the division. Does that count for nothing? Dumb, corny people love to say “it’s a 'what have you done for me lately' league”. Lately Mike Shanahan led the Skins to their first division title in 13 years.
3. The Skins were an RGKnee away from going to Atlanta for a chance to make the NFC Championship game. Argue about Shanahan leaving RGIII in after the initial injury if you must, but the injury itself wasn’t Shanahan’s fault. It’s childish to assign any blame there.
4. This
5. Mike Shanahan, the Coach, has installed the top rushing offense in the league and #5 overall. Mike Shanahan, the personnel guy, selected the league’s #2 rusher with a 6th round pick.
6. Let’s take your crazy "Fire Shanahan" logic for a walk and assume the Skins finish 8-8 and don’t make the playoffs this year. Because you put Shanahan on the hotseat, he is fired at the end of the year. Who do you hire to replace him? Who will you bring in that will put RGIII in the same position to succeed as the Shanahans have? You realize what a high bar of success that is right? What coach out there is ready to take that on?

 It's a stupid argument that barely needs to be addressed, but there you go. What a giant waste of everyone's time.

*red skin

Boo This Man Again: The Mike Wise Edition

Notable draft guru, Mike Wise, has advice for Ernie Grunfeld. Dumb people giving advice to other dumb people is always fascinating. Lets see what Wise has to say (My comments are in red... I guess that's obvious.):

The worst thing the Washington Wizards could do at this moment is give in to public sentiment and view their unexpected surprise of a No. 3 pick in the NBA draft lottery as a nameplate above a cubicle in their locker room next season.

The worst thing they can do is read this column.

The Wizards got lucky, moved up five picks from where they were projected to choose in the draft, and drew the third selection Tuesday night for the second year in a row. Their good fortune could allow them to keep a local college or high school kid close to home. But they should resist the temptation.

The temptation of doing the right thing?

Available at No. 3 in a month is very possibly Otto Porter Jr., the Georgetown all-American who was a finalist for numerous player-of-the-year awards. Or there could be Victor Oladipo, Indiana’s levitating swingman and DeMatha’s own. They both think the game like old souls. They move without the ball, pass, rebound and shoot the three-point bomb with aplomb. Either one is instant insurance in case Martell Webster, the team’s current starting small forward, decides to leave via free agency.

I'm sold! Make the pick, Ernie! What is this column about again?

Porter is also just 20, and there is no certainty he can play 20-plus minutes per game his rookie year and help the Wizards immediately become a playoff team. The same goes for Oladipo, who turned 21 this month and would admittedly be eye candy on a two-on-none break with John Wall in mid-March.

When Wall, Beal and Nene played, the Wizards were 15-8. Health is not a given, but you'd have to assume John Wall and Bradley Beal can stay healthy and improve. They are still super young. Why not bring in a young, cheap, good player and build a nucleus? Ernie already screwed the team by trading for Okafor and Ariza in a "win this year" move, but after this season, their horrible contracts are up and their 22 million in salary comes off the books. Plus, they can cut ties with the horribleness that is Jan Vesely and they'll gain 4 million more cap room. John Wall will eat up a lot of that new cap room with his new deal, but there is room to add good players to an exciting, young team in a city where free agents would  probably want to play.

Either seems like a good fit to play alongside Wall and Bradley Beal for years to come.

I'm sold! Make the pick, Ernie! What is the column about again?

But the Wizards don’t have years. They have next season. Postseason or bust. That’s it. And as much as I think Porter could be an all-star within three years and Oladipo could be sixth man of the year off the Wizards’ bench in 2015, I’m not sure either one makes their mark next season.

Wait, are we talking about the Nats?

Why is it postseason or bust? I don't understand. Why can't they make the post season with Wall, Beal, Nene, Okafor, Webster (if he resigns), and the third pick in the draft? Build for the future AND make the playoffs? That sounds like a plan and a real possibility. 

Plus, if Mike Wise believes Porter could be an all-star, why wouldn't he want him?

And if Ernie Grunfeld can secure an established veteran now for that pick, someone who could even help take this franchise to the second round for the first time since 2005, he’s got to take that chance.

"Ultimate Goal For The Washington Wizards Franchise: Make The Second Round". Sounds like a good plan, Mike. You are a loser. For the Wizards to make the second round, they'd have to finish 3-6 in the East to miss out on the Bulls or Heat. Pacers aren't an easy out. Celtics with Rondo back aren't going to be easy. New York may fix their problems. What if Atlanta gets Dwight Howard and Chris Paul? But you're right, the Wizards should destroy their future cap room and be locked in for possible second round exits in the future. I hate you, Mike Wise.

If he can dangle the No. 3 pick and Trevor Booker for, say, Detroit’s No. 8 pick and Greg Monroe or Minnesota’s No. 9 pick and an established veteran who’s not too old and not making more than $15 million per season, that makes the Wizards better now, not later.

Trevor Booker and the 3rd pick for Greg Monroe AND the 8th pick? Mike Wise knows nothing about basketball. Greg Monroe is good as hell. He's 22, a center, and scored 16 points a game and grabbed almost 10 boards. Monroe's PER was better than Dwight Howard's last season. Why would Detroit do that? Not only would they be fleecing Detroit by getting Monroe, Mike Wise thinks the Wizards would also get the 8th pick in the draft. Mike Wise is a moron. 

I'm assuming the T-Wolves would be trading Kevin Love in his scenario, but Mike Wise seems to have forgot his name or he's thinking about someone else. That can't be possible. He's talking about Kevin Love. He makes a hair under 15 million, so I guess he qualifies. I believe to make the trade work, the T-Wolves would have to take Okafor's contract too. Maybe the T-wolves are idiots and make that trade, but I doubt the Wizards get the 9th pick as well.

Either way, Grunfeld has a much bigger bargaining chip than he did before 9 p.m. Tuesday night.

I agree. The best thing about Ernie is that he makes really good trades...what's that?  Oh dear God. 

Bottom line, he can’t throw “developing player” at the problem anymore. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky’s shot-blocking freshman coming off ACL surgery on his left knee, will probably be gone at No. 3. If the Wizards got No. 1, they could make a good argument for not moving the pick. Noel has that much upside.

This paragraph makes no sense. It undermines the whole point of his column. Noel wouldn't help the team this season AND he is a developing player. Mike Wise made us all dumber.

But take a name like Porter’s and the sentimental attachment to a local player away and now Grunfeld has a legitimate opportunity to go out and swing a deal for a player of larger stature, maybe someone like Danny Granger, provided the Pacers all-star’s knee is finally sound again.

Porter is the 3rd best player in the draft. He fits perfectly. There is nothing sentimental about it. 

An All Star with a knee problem? What could possibly go wrong? Also, Granger is 30 years old and has one year left on his deal. Feel free to punch yourself in the face until you're unconscious to forget that you read Wise's last paragraph.

The truth: Grunfeld can’t take a chance on this June’s No. 3 pick not being a key contributor this upcoming season. He has one year remaining on his contract with the team. He can plan for the future all he wants, but that’s a fact. Don’t trade the pick to save your job, trade it for a fan base that hasn’t seen the playoffs in five years.

He'd be trading the pick to try to save his job. 

The fan base wants a team that can compete for years to come, not a team who trades the 5th pick (Rubio or Curry was there) in the draft for Mike Miller and Randy Foye in a failed attempt make the playoffs that season.  The fan base is smarter than you, Mike Wise. 

After all, since the Bulls won in 1998, of the 13 different NBA finalists in the past 15 years just eight drafted the player that led them to the Finals. It’s wrong-headed to think help is on the way because a few teams like Oklahoma City and Golden State have profited mightily from the draft recently. Look at the league as a whole to truly gauge its effectiveness.

So 62% of the teams in the Finals had a player they drafted lead them there? I'm not sold.  Mike, I'm with you. Lets do it the hard way. 

Thirty-two players taken in the first or second round of the past three drafts haven’t played a minute in the NBA. That’s slightly less than a 20 percent chance that a guy you pick might not even make your roster.

This is so stupid. Convenient of Mike to throw in second rounders in his horrible stat. I wonder how many 3rd picks in the draft made the team's roster? 100%? Let's go with that.

Just two players drafted since 2010 have been selected to the all-star game — Kyrie Irving and Paul George.

Good point. Never draft again.

There is always a sleeper late (Jrue Holiday in ’09 and Roy Hibbert in ’08 — each taken at No. 17, Rajon Rondo in ’06 at No. 21), but mostly teams need to wait a few years before their picks truly show dividends (Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Mike Conley, from ’07 or LaMarcus Aldridge, who went No. 2 in ’06.). 

And if Noah, Horford, Conley and Aldridge were all coming out today and needed time to develop into the players they have become, the advice to Grunfeld and the Wizards’ brass would still be the same: move the pick for a guy who can help take you to the postseason today, not in three to five years.

Some players aren't all stars immediately? Shit. I had no idea. The Wizards don't have time to wait on a good player whom they can build a consistent playoff team with. Mike Wise said the Wizards have to make the playoffs next season. Not sure why the Wizards have to make the playoff next season, but fake rules are fake rules.

Grunfeld needs to begin the process of moving the No. 3 pick for someone who can guarantee a playoff appearance in 2014, not in 2015 or 2016. That player probably isn’t Carmelo Anthony or even Kevin Love. But he could be someone who doesn’t need a single more minute to develop. And if that player can be acquired, this town can start seriously talking about its pro basketball team again instead of who they might pluck from the lottery.

Wait, Mike Wise wasn't talking about Kevin Love earlier? Who is he talking about trading for on the Timberwolves roster? Chase Budinger? I'm serious. He is probably talking about Chase Budinger. I just spent 5 minutes thinking of who the hell Mike Wise is talking about. He's such a fucking idiot. I hate you Mike Wise.

For Mike Wise’s previous columns go to washingtonpost.com/wise.

No thanks.

Bill Ladson's Inbox

While the rest of DC is knee deep in the Redskins offseason and hating Mike Wise, I've been going through another edition of Bill Ladson's lightly read, highly entertaining Inbox. 

The questions from the "readers" are in bold, my opinions are in red italics, and Bill's answers are in the regular font. Enjoy:

Should the Nats be worried about sending their pitchers to the World Baseball Classic? Will there be pressure on them to pitch too many innings too soon?
-- Paul F., Arlington, Va.

The Nationals are not worried about Gio Gonzalez or Ross Detwiler. They are pitching the right amount of innings to get ready for the regular season. However, manager Davey Johnson expressed concern about outfielder Eury Perez, who was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse on Thursday and is currently playing for the Dominican Republic. Perez is not getting playing time in the Classic, and Johnson would like for him to get at-bats once he returns to Minor League camp.

Poor Eury Perez. Not sure why Bill didn't mention that each round is associated with a pitch count and minimum rest days according to how many pitches a player threw. I won't bore you with the details, but Paul F in Arlington is going to go through life not knowing the specifics of the WBC pitch count rules and will never reach his potential as a well rounded human being. Bill robbed him of this. What a jerk. 

Who are going to be the lefties for the Nationals by Opening Day?
-- Ian R., Bethesda, Md.

This is one of the most talked about topics for the Nationals all spring training. How does Ian not know this answer? Is Ian off the grid and all he owns is a print out of the Nats' roster with Bill Ladson's email address scribbled on the back? Did Ian snail mail this question to his family, who hates him, asking them to email Bill Ladson for him? That is the only scenario where someone in the DC area would ask this question.

Outside of Detwiler and Gonzalez, Zach Duke will be the only lefty on the team. Most of the lefties -- other than those three -- have not been productive. Johnson said he is not worried about not having enough lefties in the bullpen. He believes Rafael Soriano, Tyler Clippard, Ryan Mattheus and Drew Storen can handle left-handed hitters.

ZZZZZZZ... what? Oh, Ok. Onto the next topic.

With Tyler Moore on the big league roster, what do you think will happen to Chris Marrero?
-- Norm P., Syracuse, N.Y.

Have you seen Old Yeller? 

Seriously, I saw this movie. My parents are assholes.

Unless he gets traded -- and I don't think he will -- Marrero will spend most of the season with Triple-A Syracuse and will likely get a callup in September. It's too bad, because he should be set in the big leagues. The hamstring injury really hurt him last year.

I agree. He should be in the big leagues.Especially if you hate production and logic. I will give Bill the fact Marrero was injured last season. He was terrible while in AA and AAA. If you give Marrero a pass, he hasn't hit enough this spring to erase his miserable 2012. His slash line this spring is .222/.317/.389. If you are really good fielding middle infielder who's good on the bases that might be ok, but Marrero is a first basemen who is poor defensively and slow. He has to hit for power. He hasn't. Bill seems to be super impressed with Marrero's 2011 season. He did hit well while in AAA (The third A stands for "A league for losers"*), but he was terrible in the 117 plate appearances when he was called up to the Majors. He had an OPS+ of 57. I'm not saying Marrero will never be good, but he has done nothing to warrant him being in the big leagues. 

Would the Nats ever consider adding Kyle Lohse to the roster?
-- Derek C., Stittsville, Ontario

At this time, the Nationals don't have interest in Lohse unless one of their starting pitchers gets hurt. If they are interested in Lohse, I don't see the Nationals giving him a three-year deal that has been reported. It would be no more than a one-year deal.

Why don't he O's sign Lohse? He will probably regress, but he's better than the poo poo platter they have waiting on Dylan Bundy. The AL East is wide open. Go for it. Then again, what do I care?

Please find out where Cole Kimball is in his rehab. I would like to know if he's anywhere close to pre-surgery velocity.
-- Dave C., Arlington, Va.

I wouldn't say he is in a rehab mode. I would say he is close to throwing the 95-mph fastball that he once threw. Kimball is having a solid spring, allowing two runs in 6 1/3 innings. The chances of him making the team are slim, however.

He could be nice insurance if Henry Rodriguez turns into pre-glasses Ricky Vaughn again. I'm not joking, maybe Henry Rodriguez needs glasses. I think I solved it. /Yelling at my mom to get Mike Rizzo on the phone/.

Having heard earlier in the offseason that general manager Mike Rizzo feels Steve Lombardozzi and Danny Espinosa are both starters and not bench players, do you feel one of them will be traded prior to Opening Day? Lombardozzi was an extremely clutch pinch-hitter last year in my opinion.
-- Patrick S., Chantilly, Va.

Patrick hates young, good, and cheap roster depth and is really into clutch hitting. Ruben Amaro would like to offer you a position in the Phillies Front Office. I'm not sure what clutch means in Patrick's definition, but Lombardozzi had one RBI off the bench in 2012. Maybe Patrick made out with a hot chick that same night as the one RBI and it's burned in his brain. Lombardozzi's BABIP off the bench was 53 points higher than his BABIP when he started the game, so I guess that makes him clutch, or lucky, or....you know what? This is a stupid question. Go ahead with your obvious answer Bill....

A trade will not come, not this year anyway. Let's say Espinosa gets hurt and needs to go on the disabled list, who is going to play second base? Lombardozzi is the obvious choice with Zach Walters as the backup.

Considering he had a very good year with Triple-A Syracuse in 2012, what are the chances of outfielder Corey Brown making the team?
-- Alex C., Montreal

6.9% (High-fived myself)

Unless someone gets hurt, the chances of Brown making the big league club are slim. If he isn't traded, I expect him to be a September callup this season.

You know the Nats are going to be good this year when the inbox ends with a Corey Brown question. Nats fans are concerned about Corey Brown's chances of making the team. Corey Brown.


*Probably not true

My past inbox blogs are here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here

Apparently The Redskins Need a New Nickname

Before we go into a full post about the Redskins and their name change, let me first take a second to acknowledge the extreme irony of our blog name as far as racism/sportsnicknames/etc goes. It is 98.9% likely that "Trail of Burgundy Tears" is more racist than "Redskins." That being said we already paid the $10 for the domain name, so we're stuck with it for life. Money doesnt grow on trees. So when the Redskins change their name, we'll change ours.

There’s been a lot of buzz about the Redskins changing their name recently, mostly driven by the mayor’s comments. And then a column in the Washington Post. And then a blog Post. And then an Editorial. And then another column. And then another editorial. And then a video (wait, what? Washington Post, welcome to the 20^th century). At first it seemed like a way to usher in the off the field offseason talk, and honestly it was a welcome change from the now-overblown speculation of RGKnee and dealing with DC and northern VA going Raven crazy for some reason.

None if this is new really. The name change topic has been a predictable blip on the offseason radar for the last 10 years, appearing during the late February doldrums and eventually overshadowed by all of the Offseason Championships that the team typically "win". But this year the argument is different, with the name-change agenda being pushed by a (mostly) white DC media for the purposes of filling column inches, getting clicks, and satiating the authors’ own (mostly) White Guilt.

Media exists to give a voice to the voiceless and to raise awareness of what is going on in society. On this issue, the WaPo is pushing their own agenda, rather than reporting news. This issue is becoming McNulty’s homeless murderer from the Wire, and it’s an abuse of influence by the DC news media. (And don’t even get us started on internet copy and pasteguru, Mike Florio)

If the Washington Post is all of a sudden the champion of wronged Native Americans, shouldn't their crusade extend beyond just the Redskins? Shouldn't they raise awareness of offensive nicknames in Cleveland and Atlanta? Of course not. That’s ridiculous, right? But the fact that the DC media is focusing solely on the Redskins on this issue, in the absence of any outside push in the DC area by actual offended groups, indicates that this is an issue only because the media has decided it's an issue. That's not right.

Rather than the WaPo randomly jumping on this issue and being the lead dog, it should monitor the situation and await public outcry to gain momentum on its own before declaring that the issue has become “news”. But the people who the WaPo claims are the most offended aren’t rallying momentum and holding protests outside Redskins Park. Until that happens, cool your jets everyone.

What's most frustrating in all this is that we agree with the media's point that the name should change. The argument that a sports team’s history is more important than the sensibilities of an offended group is absurd. You just can't do that in 2013 and nor should you. The Redskins aren't exactly breaking new ground with a name change now either. St. John’s is the Red Storm, Syracuse is now the Orange, Marquette was kind of the Gold for some reason. Colonel Reb should have been Admiral Ackbar. Florida State is still the Seminoles because they claim to “honor” the tribe, which is the kind of thing you can only pull in Florida*. The Braves even just released a racist batting practice hat, then rescinded it.

But the name shouldn't change just because a bunch of nerds in NW DC think it should. With this type of thing, you can fight it in a misguided attempt to preserve history, or see the writing on the wall and accept the inevitability of the change. We like to be progressive here at ToBT (website name, aside). 

The name Redskins was born in a time and culture that is different than the one in which we live now. While we can argue about whether or not the name is actually racist, or whether or not Native Americans even care, but the bottom line is, even if some Native Americans are offended, it should change. 

I can see why the Redskins are not open for immediate change. They are run by idiots who have no social or moral compass. In their latest moronic move, they have decided to hide behind High Schools who use "Redskins", which is ridiculous and counterproductive because these schools now have national attention and are probably going to have to change their name. It's actually funny to see the Redskins fumble around trying to defend the name. I would have been more surprising if they handled it well.

It's hard to imagine Dan Snyder changing the name. Changing the name would be like saying, "I knew it was wrong, but I kept going along with it and pretended like it wasn't super racist. Sorry about that." The Redskins organization is so far deep in this lie that the name isn't offensive, it's hard for them to admit defeat. Plus, how many times has Dan Snyder done the right thing and admitting he's wrong? Once with firing Zorn and hiring Shanahan? Does that mean he's changed. Probably not. Plus, how will he sell the past for profit? That's his business model.

The team obviously could never get back ahead of the recent articles, but in terms of recent history, it's probably the best time to actually change the name. The last remaining link to the glory days of the team, the Hoggettes, hung up their snouts (LOLZ! Git it?!). The team is on the verge of brand new era with Griffin at the helm.  This organization has changed. There's no more hogs, no more fun bunch, no more over-the-hill gang, no more ‘dirtbags’ (terrible and grasping), no more Jack Kent Cooke, no more Gibbs.  It’s time to start a new chapter. Changing the name can do that.

So, now that we agree a name change should/will happen, what’s the new name be? Stay tuned, we’ll chime in on that topic later this week …or month …or year.

* So, so gross. I used to live across the street from this.

Hair to the Redskins

We're in the offseason following a division title, and a have QB that was part of a league-wide offensive revolution on his way to the Rookie of the Year award. So what's the most pressing issue during the offseason? RGIII's rehab progress? Selecting seven DBs in the draft? Changing the name of the team? Paying Fred Davis' contract in Funyuns and Cheetos?

Absolutely not. What we all need to know is: what is up with Rob's braids dreadlocks hair and when is he going to cut it?

Sure he's only 22, and his bouffant obviously hasn't exactly prevented him from getting endorsements. It's been well established by credible scholars that he is a huge cornball brother, so he doesn't have to make a change to combat the image problems that plagued Vick even before he went to jail.

Image aside, there's also the real-life reasons why someone would switch up their 'do. He's getting married soon, so does he sport braids for that? No haircut is worth a wife's wrath over bad wedding photos. I guess there's some bonding with his Mom that goes on when she braids his hair. I can respect that, but at some point you've gotta grow out of that, right? Maybe he makes the change as he leaves rehab, a sort of new look to go along with his brand new ACL?

The point is there's a lot going on around this decision, so let's crunch the numbers make our predictions:

• Danny: I keep hearing rumors that there was a dick pic sent to that "girl" who tried to catfish the Redskins and I have a feeling it was RGIII, so I'm not sure this marriage happens. With that said, as a 30-year-old white guy, I feel like I should be the authority on a 22-year-old black man's hair. I think the only way this ends is a ponytail of plaits. He had them pulled back after he was murdered by the evil Mike Shanahan as seen here. I think his hair makes him recognizable and he won't change it no matter how much I think it looks bad. Prediction: He's buried in his braids

• Jesus: I think it's as soon as this offseason. There's nothing to do in Pensacola except meth and navel-gazing. Assuming the world's biggest cornball stays away from the Blue Sky, I think he tires of the braids and emerges as a beatiful, shorn phoenix. Prediction: June 25, 2013

• Rich : I think next year the Skins either barely miss the playoffs or lose in the 1st round and he'll come back with a new attitude and go from bright eyed and bushy-tailed poison-flavored-sandwich spokesman to a serious all-business leader.  He'll start off letting the cornball braids out in the offseason, channel Carlos Valderrama for a week or two, then cut the rest off right before the season. This will prompt some creep from ExtremeSkins to attempt to sell locks of his hair on eBay. Redskins fans are the weirdest. Prediction: August 17, 2014

Put your guess in the comments. The winner gets a ToBT tshirt! Just kidding. SPAM-bots can't wear tshirts.

A Quick Pat on the Back

The annual Offseason Debate around the Redskins name is currently raging, but while we're working on forming a coherent sentence on the topic, we wanted to call out something we read in Neil Irwin's article in the WaPo on the topic.

Irwin deftly pointed out that the primary hurdle to a name change is that there's so much green wrapped up in the Redskins name. That's no surprise (I feel comfortable saying that Snyder loves money more than racism), but buried in his valuation analysis was an interesting calculation of fan loyalty:

The Redskins have won 42.5 percent of their regular season games in the last decade, which puts them about on par with the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans. Those two teams are, by Forbes’s estimates, worth around $1 billion each, which implies that the loyalty of Redskins fans, built out of past greatness, is worth something like half a billion dollars to Snyder (that is, the difference between the franchise value of the Redskins [$1.56 billion, mentioned earlier in the article] and that of similarly mediocre teams with smaller and less loyal fan bases).

This is a nifty (if somewhat imperfect) calculation that quantifies what we've known all along: that the loyalty of Redskins fans is one of the most valuable commodities in all of sports, to the tune of half a billion dollars. Our loyalty, in the form of season tickets, Trung Canidate jerseys, and Cleatus dolls is worth some serious coin, even without the legions of bandwagon fans that would (and have started to) flood the turnstiles once the product on the field improves.

So pat yourselves on the back, Redskins fans. We are mathematically the dumbest least-capable of learning most loyal fans in the NFL.

Yay.

Lucky 2013: A Year of Super Bowl Odds

Watching other teams play in the playoffs is boring. Let's look entirely too far into the future and talk about the Redskins:

With an NFC East title, the Redskins are finally relevant again. Which means the tone of this blog officially needs to switch from complaining about how bad the Redskins are to how they get no respect in the national media.

Since power rankings are infuriating and biased, and because geniuses like Pete Prisco are allowed to make predictions like this without consequences, we'll be tracking the only true measure of where the Redskins fall on the continuum of NFL teams, the Vegas Super Bowl odds.

Before either Conference Championship game kicked off, the Redskins' odds sat at 30-1, settling in with the Bears, Bengals, Cowboys, and Chargers.

This seems about right to me, given that the secondary will be filled with rookies in August, and it could easily be the Kirk Cousins show on offense until late October. You can't help but wonder what these odds would be with a healthy RGIII spending the offseason training like Ivan Drago in Kyle Shanahan's secret island volcano lair. The Giants opened at 20-1, so you have to assume it would be around there. I'm not sure even a healthy RGIII could warrant an odds drop down to 15-1 with the Falcons and Steelers, given that the Redskins have a division winner's schedule next year.

But enough about 2013 for now. What we know about how good this Redskins team will be is actually pretty well represented in the graph below. Which is to say, pretty much nothing:

Playoff Predictions: Seattle Edition

Today is a first in Trail of Burgundy Tears history. No, it's not my first sober post. It is the first time in history that we are going to make a playoff game prediction. Our predictions are usually horrible because we make our regular season game predictions before the season starts and not during the week of the actual game. Some call this practice genius....ok, no one calls it genius. You guys probably thought we were idiots talking about Michael Vick in our Eagle previews. This preview is different. Not even through our maroon and black Redskins sunglasses could we have foreseen a home playoff game against the stupid Seattle Seahawks before the season started. These predictions are as fresh as they come. Feel free to write them into your Encyclopedia Britannica as fact. Our predictions:  

Rich Tanguy: The only way I see us lose is if we start turning the ball over all of the sudden, or if we get killed on special teams (#firedannysmith?). Our offenses are similar so both defenses should be ready. Griff is better than Russel Wilson and I think hes chomping at the bit to prove it.  It's weird  there is like a reverse east coast bias going on right now, somehow due to The Sports Guy, who is an NBA analyst and only roots for the Patriots or his own picks (i.e. His pick for Seattle to win the Super Bowl, which he quit on when the Seahawks lost to the Dolphins). Maybe there is just an anti-Redskins media bias? It makes sense because we've been terrible for so long, so that means the 2012 Redskins are horrible. Sound logic. Everyone is ignoring that the team is on a 7 game win streak with basically 3 different quarterbacks (Griff, Cousins, Hurt Griff) while having Rex in sweats telling them to throw it deep. The lazy media is just saying the same things - we have a poor offensive line or bad WR (5 WR averaging +14 ypc) - and not looking at how we have won or what we are doing well. People make a big fuss about the Seahawks defense and all their turnovers - we have the same amount 31. They are +11 on the season, we are +17.  Yes some of that is fumble luck, but its football and lucky bounces are part of the game.  

I just checked the starting line ups - the Seahawks have 3 of the same on the OL, TE  is the same, Rice and Tate both on the team, Lynch at RB. They have 6 of the same front 7. Same 4 in the secondary. That's 18/22 of the same starters from last years team when we beat them. We have Trent, Will, Chester on the line (that's it on O), and Cofield, Bowen, Kerrigan, Riely, LFB, Hall, Wilson on defense. That's 10/22.  AND WE BEAT THEM AT HOME!!!  AND WE"RE BETTER THIS YEAR!!! I don't understand how we have no shot!! It's insane. Prediction: 27-24

Jesus Shuttlesworth: Unlike seemingly everyone in the media, I’m not sure what to make of the Seahawks. From a gambling perspective, I remember spending September and October saying to myself “the Seahawks stink, but they are at home so maybe they can pull this out”. I even wound up on the positive side of that Replacement Ref atrocity taking them vs. the Packers. Obviously teams can turn it around, but it’s tough to shake why I think the Seahawks aren’t good just because they VaderBombed the Bills and Cardinals. Maybe that’s why everyone is fading the Redskins. The stink of failure doesn’t wash off easily. But ultimately, unless you’re the Giants, it’s really, really hard to win on the road in the playoffs, and the Seahawks’ 3 road wins don’t do a whole lot to convince me otherwise. The Seahawks marched to supposed dominance by capitalizing on turnovers, but what the Redskins don’t do is turn the ball over. If the Seahawks win, it’s because they follow the Panthers’ and Steelers’ gameplan and win the battle in the trenches with their D-line, but that’s not exactly the Seahawks’ strength.

I say the Skins’ defense forces two big turnovers but also gives up two big plays, a long pass and a long run. I think Alf gets 24 carries for 115 and a TD, and I think Griff throws for 223 and a TD to Josh Morgan. Kai Forbath goes 2 for 3 on FGs, and your final score is Redskins 20, Seahawks 17. It’s basically the Giants MNF game all over again

Danny Lightfoot: I thought our season was a success with the win over Dallas for the NFC East Championship  I said right after the game that no matter what happens in the playoffs, this season was a ridiculous success. I believed that until about Wednesday this week. Everyone started picking the Seahawks. Plus, I had no idea how annoying the Seattle Seahawks players were. The Giants aren't as confident or annoying as these guys, and that's saying something. The Seahawks haven't won anything. Richard Sherman is the worst guy in the NFL. The idea of celebrating not being suspended for Adderall because of a technicality, even though you know you cheated is something an insane person does. I kind of want to head over to their hotel on Capitol Hill and tell them how much I hate them. They need to know they are awful humans. I mean, look at this. (I have no opinion of their fans, because I have never met one. I don't believe they exist outside of Seattle.)

Now, I'm a blogger and I'm this annoyed by the Seahawks and the national medis. Imagine how the Redskins' players feel? This team rallied together to win 7 straight games. They rushed for 274 yards and 4 touchdowns in a must win game while holding Dallas's offense to 296 total yards. The Redskins have answered the bell for 7 straight weeks. You think they have no pride and aren't pissed with all the noise coming out of Seattle? You think RGIII isn't going to do something special? You think Seattle's pedestrian run defense (6th worst in NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt) is going to slow down our rushing attack (The best in the NFL)? You think Seattle will become great on the road? 

Everyone in the national media is picking the Seahawks. They are ignoring that the Redskins. Last time I checked they were a great team too. We are getting no respect. I think the Redskins start out fast and jump on the Seahawks with a 10-0 lead. Seattle starts to throw the ball and become more one dimensional and Russell Wilson throws a pick or two. The Redskins prove everyone wrong and win this game. Plus, Seattle's favorite athlete, Kevin Durant, is a Skins fan. We can't lose. Prediction: 27-17. 

Fun With Bill Ladson's Inbox Vol.7

The Redskins' first home playoff game since 1999 is this Sunday, so I know what everyone wants to read, a Bill Ladson Inbox post! His latest installment does not disappoint.

My past inbox blogs are here, here, here, here, here, here, and here

The questions from the "readers" are in bold, my opinions are in red italics, and Bill's answers are in the regular font. Enjoy:

Where does Henry Rodriguez fit in the Nationals' plan this upcoming season?
-- Louis G, Washington

Provided that he is healthy and has a great Spring Training, I see him being a guy who pitches between the sixth and eighth innings. Manager Davey Johnson doesn't give up on players who ended the season on a sour note. In his case, Rodriguez's season ended early because of a right elbow injury.

At the end of the day, Henry Rodriguez pitched 29.1 innings with a 5.83 ERA and the Nats' still won 98 games. The Nationals don't need him. Anyone can contribute that hot mess of a year to the team. If he gives the Nats something that is better and more useful this season, great.

What are the Nats going to do with first baseman Chris Marrero?
-- Jimmy M., Alexandria. Va.

Bronze him and then put him into the Hall of First Rounders Who Didn't Become Anything. It's very crowded, not with real humans because no one would go, but with bronze statues of horrible picks.

I don't see how Marrero fits in their plans. The bench is pretty much set and Johnson wants Mark DeRosa back as one of his utility players ("Hey Davey! The game is on the line. We need a 38 year old who can't hit (OPS+ of 52) or play defense (-0.5 dWAR). You got one of those on the roster?"- Things no one has ever said) . It would seem the Nationals would try to trade him between now and Spring Training. In my opinion, Marrero is not a Minor Leaguer(He is). Provided that he is healthy, he belongs in the Major Leagues (He doesn't). To me, he was impressive during his brief call up in 2011(What?!). 

You just can't say things like that. It's just not right for people to walk away from this inbox and repeat that last statement in public. The ridicule and embarrassment would be too much to live with. People trust you, Bill. Stop saying absurd things. In 2011 Marrero played in 31 games. His only appearance in the majors. His slash line was: .248/.274/.294. His OPS was .567 and his OPS+ was 57. He struck out 27 times and walked 4. He had 27 hits with 0 home runs and played a below average first base (-0.3 dWAR). Maybe I forgot what "impressive" means....Ok, I looked it up. I was right. Chris Marrero was the opposite of impressive in 2011.

Isn't it time to make Ross Detwiler the No. 4 starter? Also, what do you think of Nats' rotation?
- Archit. M., Arlington, Va.

I agree, this is bullshit. Remember when they didn't pitch him game 4 of the NLDS? Detwiler gets no respect.

Detwiler was great during the season. Entering Spring Training, Detwiler is the No. 4 guy in the rotation since Edwin Jackson became a free agent. As far the rotation goes, it's outstanding. Provided everyone is healthy, the rotation should be the least of the team's concerns. (No way! I'm with Archit. The possibility of Dan Haren pitching one day before Detwiler to start the season would screw everything up.) My biggest concern is the bullpen. You hope that Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen have recovered from subpar performances in the National League Division Series, and the club can replace Sean Burnett, who signed with the Angels. The Nationals are still in the mix for free agent J.P. Howell.

Bill Bray was an OK pitcher in his last stint with the Nationals. Do you think he will be anywhere near as good the second time around?
-- Drew D., Leesburg, Va.

Bill Bray last played for the Nats in 2006 and threw 23 innings. That's a terrible predictor of future success. I looked up Bill Bray's stats, which proves that I have no life, and he was pretty good in 2008 and 2011. His career K's per 9 innings is 8.6, which is also pretty good. His career ERA+ is 115 and that's surprising....what am I doing? This is Bill Bray. Moving on...

It depends on his health, which has been an issue. He grew up in Virginia Beach. (I like fun facts that have nothing to do with anything! Here's another, he also pitched at William and Mary, which is also in Virginia.) I expect him to be motivated and have a good season. If he makes the team out of Spring Training, I could see as a situational lefty.

Should the Nationals be concerned with the way Ryan Zimmerman was releasing the ball at the end of 2012 season?
-- Brian H., Stafford, Va.

Brian H is a huge fan. Just started watching the Nats at the end of last season. Zimmerman has had throwing issues for two seasons now.

Let's see how he performs during Spring Training games. Remember, he had offseason surgery on his right shoulder and I think he will be better than he was during the 2012 season.

Bill see's everything with rose colored glasses. Ryan Zimmerman may have the yips. But I agree, we should see how he throws in Spring Training before we quit on him.

Why don't the Nationals just give Adam LaRoche a third year? If things don't pan out by the third year, the team could trade him.
-- Gregory B., Stafford, Va.

We should trade him for Mike Trout. The Nationals will have to eat the contract if they wanted to trade a player who has aged terribly (See Michael Young). No other team has offered a third year, so the Nats are doing the right thing.

Easier said than done. First of all, the Nationals are not going to budge from their stance by giving LaRoche a third year.(The end. Question time over..what's that? There's more?) Let's say LaRoche is past his prime by the third year(At 35? You're talking crazy,but go on). It would be hard for him to be traded because he would make a lot of money and other teams probably would want the Nationals to eat a good chunk of his salary.(This is why Bill gets paid the big bucks, he answers the moronic questions without belittling the readers. I should look into it)

Don't forget, the Nationals most likely will put Matthew Skole at first base by 2015. Skole -- the organization's Minor League Player of the Year this past season and ranked by MLB.com as the team's No. 10 prospect -- played for Class A Hagerstown and Potomac and hit a combined .291 with 27 home runs and 104 RBIs.

More likely to play first than Ryan Zimmerman or Tyler Moore? A guy in class A is more likely to play first than those two in two years? He must be a sure thing.

Redskins Playoffs 2012: Crown Seattle Edition

Any Redskins fan (especially one that has been around for at least 15 years or so...) would have been perfectly happy with the last 7 weeks.   An amazing winning streak defined a season with surprising success that we,  the fans, were able to enjoy more than any other in recent history.  Explosive plays, likable players, kneel downs (!!).  We were fully prepared for a playoff appearance to be icing on the cake of a season that set up a bright future next year. The performances against the Giants on Monday night, the Ravens comeback, and the Dallas game in prime time could serve as proxy playoff wins, especially relative to the 8-8 year most predicted (or the 3-13 year...).

Then the chirping started.

It started innocently enough when the spread for the game came out Sunday night. The line opened as a “Pick ‘Em”, which seemed about right, then shot up immediately to Seahawks -2.5, which seemed like a bit too exuberant for a team that struggled to beat the Rams at home just hours earlier. But fine, early lines can be weird (Note: in some places its now -3.5).

Then I sat through roughly 90 minutes of Patriots talk (even though they don't even play this week), each of the last 3 Bill Simmons (BS) Reports just to hear about Seattle’s 2nd round matchups like beating the Redskins was a foregone conclusion. Now even the most novice sports fan knows the Simmons only cares about his own teams (or picks - like the Seahawks winning the superbowl this year) or convoluted corollaries to made up theories, but ignoring a team on a 7 game winning streak that is playing at home when there are only 4 games to breakdown seems a bit irresponsible*.

It didnt stop there.  The "experts" put out their picks for each of the major sports websites (NFL.com, CBSSports.com, Yahoo, SI.com, etc) as the week went on and they continued to choose the Seahawks over and over again.

We're not even to the Seattle homers yet!  We haven't counted the ridiculous claims by current players, ex-players and Seattle Radio hosts.  And dont even try to talk to fans on twitter...

Seattle has officially been crowned and there's another 48 hours before kickoff.

Now I want this game. I need this game. The Seahawks and their fans have lost their minds. I don’t just want a win, I want a dominating win. Like 38-17, with Marshawn Lynch bottled up and Russell Wilson throwing 60% of his passes into the stands or to Rob Jackson.  Alf running for 150 and a TD while Garcon catches 13 passes and gets first down after first down after first down as a giant F.U. to everyone jocking the Seahawks DBs.

The Seahawks need to be taken down a peg. There’s no reason for this confidence. No other team in the NFC would be approaching this game with so much unearned bravado. I feel like Vikings fans are as happy to be here as the Redskins. Atlanta had a great season and earned the #1 seed. They’d be cautious and humble after recent embarrassing playoff exists. The 49ers played in the NFC Championship game last year. That’s impressive! The Packers have essentially the same team that won the Super Bowl two years ago. Go ahead and be confident! Its your money, you paid for it!

But Seattle? Really? I know you can pick and choose stats to fit any arguement, I complain about the lazy media doing it all the time (on this website!).  So now its my turn to be lazy.  Here are some 100% true facts about the Seahawks and/or Redskins:

• The Seahawks did not beat a 2012 playoff team on the road this year (0-2)
• The Redskins were 3-2 at home vs playoff teams from 2012.
• The Seahawks lost to the Dolphins, the Rams, and the Lions on the road this year.
• The Seahawks have caused 31 turnovers (18 INT).
• The Redskins have caused 31 turnovers (21 INT).
• The Seahawks have a +13 TO margin. 
• The Redskins have a +17 TO margin.
• The "amazing" Seahawks pass rush has 36 sacks on the season.
• The Redskins have 31 sacks.
• The Seahawks are projected to start 18/22 of the same starters from week 12 of last year.
• The Redskins beat the Seahawks in week 12 of last year... with Rex Grossman as the starter.
• THE GAME WAS IN SEATTLE.
• Robert Griffin has more passing yards per game (and overall), more rushing yards per game (and overall), less interceptions, a higher completion percentage, a higher rating, a higher QBR, and less sacks given up than Russel Wilson.
• Alfred Morris has more TD, more yards rushing per game (and overall) than Marshawn Lynch.
• The Redskins have 5 WR that average more than 30 yards per game, the Seahawks have 2. 
• Pierre Garcon averages more yards per game than any Seahawks WR.

Luckily we are not the only people that hate Seattle, I know there are Redskins fans all over the area (and the country?) that will be rooting their ass off on Sunday.  I'll be there in the stadium with my fellow blogmates ready to wake up Monday with no voice, a hangover and hopefully a big fat hairy W.  CANT WAIT.

*Yes i know he talked to his "buddy" House who is a DC homer, which i did enjoy, but hes not really an expert, so cut me some slack.