The Legacy of Dan Snyder Mathematically Defined

In the past we here at TOBT have dropped the Unimpressive NFC East Stat of the Week.  The idea is to use numbers to show that the Eagles or Cowboys can stink just as bad as us in some way or another.  Its the age old trick of putting down others to make yourself feel better - it never fails.  This week was a different story.  I came upon a stat that was so embarrassing about the Redskins, that it simply could not be ignored.  I got a text last night that said the following:

"12 years in a row that the Redskins have lost at least 3 games in a row"

Ho-ly cow.

I mean that has to be worse than the "losing to 7 straight rookie quarterbacks" streak that we currently have going, right?*

Anyways, I figured as all good reporters do, I should verify this little tidbit before posting.  So here is the breakdown of each streak in all its glory:

• 2000: Weeks 13 - 16 (4 games = BONUS)
• 2001: Weeks 1 - 4  (ditto!)
• 2002: Weeks 13 -15
• 2003: Weeks 5 - 9 AND Weeks 11 - 13 AND Weeks 15 - 17 (that is impressive)
• 2004: Weeks 2 - 5 AND Weeks 10 - 12 (at least its not 2003?)
• 2005: Weeks 10 - 12
• 2006: Weeks 5 - 7 (Note: after week 8, which broke this streak, we lost 6 of 8 just missing it 3 other times)
• 2007: Weeks 10 - 13
• 2008: Weeks 13 - 15
• 2009: Weeks 5 - 9 AND Weeks 10 - 12 AND Weeks 15-17 (gaaahhh!)
• 2010: Weeks 12 - 15
• 2011: Weeks 6 - 8 (...and counting)

YUP.  That pretty much sums up the Daniel Snyder Era.  Well at least on the field, off the field is a whole other post blog.


*After this weekend there is a 100% chance it becomes 8 on Christmas Eve.

Week 8: The Buffalo Bills Edition

I joined a fantasy football league for the first time this season. It's a ten team league filled with the guys I work with at Modell's. I'm 1-6, which is good enough to be in dead last. In my defense, it's my first time and no one is good at anything the first time they do it(I could go alot of ways with that, but this is a family blog*). Another reason for my awful record was that I was late getting to the library to use the internet for the draft, so I only started drafting my team until the 7th round. My draft went like this:

1st- Aaron Rodgers

2nd- Calvin Johnson

3rd- Matt Forte

4th- Ahmad Bradshaw

5th- Dwayne Bowe

6th- Jason Witten

7th- Ryan Torian

8th- Rex Grossman

9th- Chris Cooley

10th- Santana Moss

11th-Fred Davis

12th- Tim Hightower

13th- Graham Gano

14th- Redskins Defense

15th- Jabar Gaffeny

16th- Anthony Armstrong

17th- Roy Helu

18th- John Beck (such value)

19th- Brandon Banks

20th- Logan Paulsen

I think it's a pretty solid team, other than those first six guys who I have never heard of. Those six clowns only started for me during the Redskins' bye week, which was oddly the only week I won. Fantasy is such a crap shoot in that way.

Even though my fantasy team is 1-6, my playoff push starts this week with the Redskins going against the 31st ranked defense in the league. The Buffalo Bills give up 420 yards a game. Kyle Shanahan's dynamic offense will be on full display. The Redskins' offense should be able to show the league they can be functional, if not average. It will be a glorious 35-27 loss. I can't wait.

While I don't think the Redskins will win, my fantasy team, The Kyle Dannyhans, should be 2-6 on Tuesday. The Redskins' season on the other hand will be in an official tailspin.

*My mom is our only reader.

The Key to Redskins' Sustained Success: Magic?

Nate Jackson is a former NFL tight end who currently writes excellent articles about the NFL for Slate and Deadspin. His latest article is about Tim Tebow, and why his talents are not the same as a typical NFL QB.

His primary argument revolves around Tebow's freelancing style that differs from the normal idea of the quarterback as a "coach on the field" that manages the game and executes a scripted gameplan as it was drawn up:

"After all, a quarterback like Tebow is a living affront to that secret knowledge, possessed primarily by a fraternity of former coaches and players who now talk on TV for a living, of what it takes to succeed in the NFL. A successful Tebow is a quarterback who craps all over the conventional football wisdom, and this has the football world very afraid."

Jackson continues to name what he believes Tebow possesses compared to the "typical" NFL quarterback:

"I am hoping and waiting for a brave coach to put in some plays called "Get Open" and "Throw to Whomever the F**k You Want." Those plays will work. I'm sure of it. When things are right, there's a telekinesis on the football field that supersedes everything. I've felt it. And I've felt the triumph of flawless execution. I'll take the magic over the execution any day. The magic is Tim Tebow's milieu. The flawless execution is not."

While I'm not sure I completely agree with Jackson's premise (I would argue that Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers' "milieus" contain both superior execution and plenty of style points when necessary), it highlights something that's been absent from Redskins Park since Snyder took over. The Redskins haven't had enough players with "magic".

I realize using a word like "magic" is a slippery slope into the world of "grit", "moxie", and "Davidgrit Gristein", but I think Jackson's point is ultimately that a supremely talented player can improvise outside of the construct and scheme a coach has designed and instructed its players to execute.

These players "rise above" the average players around them when a play breaks down. Magical quarterbacks buy some time and find an open receiver, Magical punters handle the bad snap for the game-winning field goal, and Magical linebackers make an extra push to put points on the board. These players are not easy to find, and no amount of coaching can give them that "magic".

Snyder's Redskins have had plenty of coaches with Super Bowl pedigrees, and none have made a tangible difference. Why? NFL coaches can create schemes and demand flawless execution of their high-concept gameplans, but unless the players on the field have the ability to make something out of nothing when a play breaks down, even the best-laid gameplan falls flat. That's what magic means to me.

The Redskins' 2011 roster of completely average (with injuries, below-average) chumps isn't going anywhere this year. Outside of Orakpo, it might be completely devoid of magic. The only solution to a roster full of sorcerer's apprentices is stringing together successful offseasons with a lot of draft picks and low-profile free agent signings that fill roster gaps and are a good fit for the scheme. Finding players with that magic takes time and luck. Lots of time and luck.

There you have it. Earth-shattering revelation there. The Redskins need better players that can make big plays instead of following coaches' orders to try and stay on the squad.

Thanks Jesus, thanks for wasting all of our time.
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(un)Lucky Number 7

Seven in a row.  Seven straight losses by the Redskins against rookie quarterbacks.  That has to be some kind of record, right?

/crunches numbers

Yes, that is a record: worlds most pathetic team.  Let's take a look at this murders row of  quarterbacks that has beaten the Redskins the last 5 years.  I'll breakdown the rookie's line, how it compares to their career rating, and a gut reaction to the stats (b/c I dont have the time, resources, effort to try to watch any of these games again):

#1 - Vince Young (10/15/2006: Tennessee Titans at Redskins)

• Final Score: 22-25
• Stat Line: 13/25, 161 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT, 85.6 Rating.
• Game Rating: 85.6
• Career Rating: 75.3
• Gut reaction: Ridiculous. Looking back on it now, it was a terrible loss (especially considering we were up 14-3 at home), but Vince was the original Tebow - an ugly QB that would just 'win.'  Somewhere along the line he lost his charm.
• Where he is now: Riding the bench in Philly only to play interception-tag with the Sex Cannon when he actually gets into the game.

#2 - Bruce Gradkowski (11/26/2007: Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

• Final Score: 17-20
• Stat Line: 14/21, 178 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
• Game Rating: 104.9
• Career Rating: 66.5
• Gut Reaction: Epic fail. We basically let a rookie 6th round QB look like a real player.  This also happened to be Jason Campbell's first start with the Redskins (a showdown for the ages).  To add insult to injury, TJ Ducket was the Redskins leading rusher with 26 yards.
• Where is he now: "The Polish Cannon" is in Cincinnati and actually threw a TD this year - WHO KNEW?  He's also thrown for a whopping 1800 yards in 16 games since 2006.

#3 - Trent Edward (12/02/2007: Buffalo Bills at Redskins)

• Final Score: 16-17
• Stat Line: 22-36, 257 passing yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 82.8 Rating.
• Game Rating: 82.8
• Career Rating: 75.4
• Gut Reaction: Gut Punch.  The game after Sean Taylor died and we lead the whole game.  Gibbs 2.0 also had a double time out gaffe that made the winning FG that much easier for Lindell and the Bills.
• Where is he now: WE HAVE A WINNER!  Edwards is out of the league after being cut by Oakland (c'mon he couldnt have thrown 3 int this weekend?!) in training camp.

#4 - Joe Flacco (12/07/2008: Redskins at Baltimore Ravens)

• Final Score: 10-24
• Stat Line: 10/21, 134 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. 64.4 Rating.
• Game Rating: 64.4
• Career Rating: 87.0 
• Gut Reaction: No complaints. Flacco has been a surprisingly efficient QB for most of his career and the Jim Zorn lead Redskins were completely out manned in this game versus a real team.
• Where is he now: When not entertaining kids with his 'life partner' Ernie, Bert Flacco has been having an up and down year with the Ravens.

#5 - Matthew Stafford (09/27/2009: Redskins at Detroit Lions)

• Final Score: 10-24
  
• Stat Line: 21/36, 241 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT.
  
• Game Rating: 87.8
  
• Career Rating: 77.4
• Gut Reaction: Embarrassing.  The Lions had lost 19 straight games (I hate you Jim Zorn).  And Jon Jansen celebrating was probably the worst part.
  
• Where is he now: When he is not sitting around in a walking boot or sling, Stafford is throwing up balls and big numbers to Megatron.

#6 - Sam Bradford (09/26/2010: Redskins at St. Louis Rams)

• Final Score: 16-30
  
• Stat Line: 23/37, 235 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
• Game Rating: 78.1
  
• Career Rating: 75.4
• Gut Reaction: ehhhhh. The Redskins entire defense was terrible last year, this is the game that everyone realized it.
  
• Where is he now: Bradford is supposedly good.  His team is 0-7 this year after a rough first half schedule though.  The Redskins got some "revenge" in the ugliest game of the year.

#7 - Cam Newton (10/23/2011: Redskins at Carolina Panthers)

• Final Score: 20-33
  
• Stat Line: 18/23, 256 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. 10 rush, 59 yards, 1 TD.
  
• Game Rating: 127.5
• Career Rating: 82.8
• Gut Reaction: Cam Newton is going to be f*cking good.
  
• Where is he now: Cam Newton is going to be f*cking good.

So there you have it.  What was Joe Gibbs doing by the way?  The first three QB are out of the league or on a bench somewhere and two of those games were at HOME?  Ouch.

By the way, anyone else looking forward to our game against the Vikings on Christmas eve?  Yea, me neither.

Beck: Where it's at!

Redskins got 2 bad losses and a new quarterback.*  And like any good, sane Redskins fan, I have talked myself into the Air Mormon Era.

Ok fine, so he might not be that good is probably terrible, but you know what?  I don't care.  Not since November 16th, 2006 have I been this excited about the QB situation in Washington. 

Yes, I know what you're saying "Rich, you dimwit, Jason Campbell was an average QB that actually helped our team make the playoffs one year by getting hurt!"  You know what reader-who-doesn't-actually-exist?  You're right, J.Camp didn't get us anywhere, but entering the stadium down in Tampa that afternoon was the most excited I've been as a Redskins fan in the last 11 years and counting.**.  For god's sake, we are people that root for This Guy's team!  We need to find ways to get excited any way we can.

I mean look at John.  He looks like a real quarterback.  He's got that 1/2 sleeve under armor, he's taller than the center, he's in shape.  At the very least we might be able to fool some of the fans of the opposing team.  Since Snyder took over, I've been busy.  I've done the research and crunched the numbers to calculate the average Redskins fan's mood over those 170+ games, and I've found out the following:

• 1% of the time the average Redskins fan is: HAPPY
• 3% of the time the average Redskins fan is: EXCITED
• 17% of the time the average Redskins fan is: DISSAPOINTED
• 22% of the time the average Redskins fan is: INFURIATED
• 57% of the time the average Redskins fan is: EMBRASSED

So why not just be excited for a few more days?  Who knows, maybe even a few more weeks!  Maybe I'm internal optimist, but since there were people named Tom Brady and Kurt Warner, I'm holding out hope in John John the Phenomenon. 

Whats that?  Those were extenuating circumstances with incredibly talented athletes who were put in a great situation with a top notch organization?  OH... WELL... IN THAT CASE.


*I turned 30 last week, I'm allowed to make terrible old man metaphors/jokes.

**yes, the playoff runs were more exciting, but I'm bad enough at writing as is and I figured doing an asterisk is better then making a complicated run on sentence like this one.

The Rex Grossman Era

The Rex Grossman era came to an expected end against the Eagles this past weekend. He did it the most Rex way possible by throwing 4 interceptions. After the game, I was ready for the Foreman Mormon, and Mike Shanahan answered my prayers. Beck is about to be unleashed on the NFL, or it could be the other way around...ok, it's probably the NFL being unleashed on Beck. Now I'm depressed (starts kicking a rock down the road silently weeping). Anyway, back to this awesome blog post.

After the news came out that John Beck was the new starting quarterback, Rex Grossman made a questionable statement that makes me believe that he doesn't know what good quarterbacking is. While he said he wasn't shocked he was benched, (Both Rex and I agree that the Eagles game was one of the worst displays of quarterbacking we've ever seen. At least he has some perspective), he felt that the Eagle game was his only bad game:

"The frustrating part about it is that I do think that [the four prior games] were good performances"

I cannot wrap my head around his self evaluation. I have the memory of Ricky Henederson, so maybe I just misremembered Rex being terrible the two games before the Eagles game. Lets take a look back at Rex Grossman's magical season. It's going to be an amazing, enlightening, productive ride with a few laughs and alot of tears, kind of like my 3rd marriage ZZIIINNNG!!

Giants: 305 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, 1 Turnover, 110.5 QB Rating

Undoubtedly a great performance. Opening day, against a division rival is a tough way to start and he was instrumental in our victory. Sure the Giants had a banged up defense, but a win and a great performance is something you can't take from him.

My Take: GREAT

Rex's Take: GOOD (Don't be so hard on yourself Rex)

Cardinals: 291 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, 2 Turnovers, 74.9 QB Rating

The Cardinals stink. We had a chance to jump on them early and Rex threw a terrible pick. The other interception was early in the game too. Rex bounced back and lead us to victory, but at the same time, it shouldn't have been that close.

My Take: PASSABLE

Rex's Take: GOOD

Dallas: 250 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 2 Turnovers, 77.5 QB Rating

America saw this game. Rex lied to America's face calling this "good". Dallas couldn't line up, didn't score a touchdown, and we still lost. You can blame the holder and the running game, and leave Rex out of it. I wouldn't. Rex played badly. He didn't take advantage in the red zone, and threw an interception which gave Dallas three points. He also failed miserably on a game winning drive by fumbling to end the game. By the way, my fat son has bigger, stronger hands than Rex. He drops the ball all the time.

My Take: BAD

Rex's take: GOOD

Rams: 143 Passing yards, 1 TD, 2 Turnovers, 48.5 QB Rating

Rex was so bad in this game, it felt like a loss. If not for Ryan Torain we probably lose this game. Sure one interception wasn't his fault, and he made one good throw for a touchdown, but come on, it was the awful Rams and he couldn't make enough plays to win the game. The defense had to bail him out.

My Take:TERRIBLE

Rex's Take: GOOD

If Rex Grossman calls these all "good performances", I think we need Beck. Those were not "good performances". Maybe Rex just expects less from a quarterback than the rest of the NFL.

Hopefully Beck holds himself to a higher standard.

I don't know, I feel better that Beck is our quarterback going forward. I don't know how this translates, but Rex seems like the kid who was told to clean his room and just shoved everything under his bed and in his closet, while Beck seems like the type of kid who not only cleaned his room amazingly, but the rest of his house, and his neighbor's house. While Rex was doing whip-its at UF, Beck was giving the Portuguese magic Mormon underwear. I just feel calmer about the situation.....unless John Beck stinks, then I'll become an inconsolable ball of rage and disgust.

We'll find out what we have this Sunday. I'll either get excited about the rest of the season, or I'll start to study the draft board, like a usual November as a Redskins fan.

When You Walk Through The Garden...

 

For those unfamiliar with the HBO drama series The Wire, it's an epic saga about cops and drug dealers in Baltimore. It's a great show, loved by tv critics and white people alike. It also has the unfortunate side effect of Jason Whitlock making nonsensical analogies that make everyone's skin crawl with corny and forced comparisons to the show.

If you're lazy and hate hours of televised enjoyment, you can get caught up on the entire show in five minutes.

The Wire wove a rich tapestry of characters over five seasons, and one of the best, for name alone, was always "street soldier with a heart of gold," Slim Charles.

Most actors and celebrities are fickle drama nerds who know nothing of allegiance to sports franchises. The NHL even made celebrities' lack of loyalty part of their marketing plan. So it's always refreshing when you find any actor who is a legitimate fan of a team.

Now any fan of The Wire knows how Slim Charles feels about people who mistreat dogs, so it wasn't surprising that he was rooting against R. Mexico and the Eagles on Sunday, but the fact that one of the best characters on one of the best shows ever is a huge enough Redskins fan to be tailgating with the rest of us peons before a key NFC East matchup last week is reason enough that Anwan Glover should be everyone's favorite actor.

For those curious, the BFFs in the picture above are, from left to right: Ken Tremendous, Slim Charles, Dak, Junior, and Matthew Murbles.

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Fun With Hindsight!

So the Redskins named John Beck the starter for the Redskins' inevitable letdown slaughter against the Panthers this Sunday. There is no shortage of analysis on the QB change in DC. It's all fairly predictable with the prevailing sentiment being "what choice do the Shannies have with Rex acting like a double agent for the opposing defense" and "good for Beck, 'bout time he gets a shot".

Whatever.

As we all know, before John Beck became "Not Rex" in DC, he was a pretty hot prospect in the 2007 draft, and it's always fun to look back at pre-draft sentiment and laugh.

But I wasn't expecting this little gem from a March 2007 USA Today article:

"Beck impressed with his vision, accuracy and velocity, soaring up the charts from middle of the pack to among those in the mix after the top two prospects at the quarterback position

'There's JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn, and it's John Beck next,' says Rob Rang, a senior draft analyst for NFLDraftScout.com. 'He's very accurate. He really helped himself by throwing well at the combine.'"

John Beck: almost as good as Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell.

Sunday afternoon can't come quick enough!

The Odds Must Be Crazy**

I'm far from a gambling genius. I try to figure out complicated football betting strategies but numbers make my brain bad. If you're looking for fantastic gambling analysis, you're better off at VegasWatch. Just don't taunt him on Twitter, because he'll win.

But as bad as I am at guessing, I'm still called to gaze at the odds each week. When I looked this week, I found something curious:

The 3-1 Redskins are 1.5 point underdogs to the 1-4 Eagles at home.

Now the Redskins being home underdogs is far from a new development. I guess a decade of losing completely winnable games against inferior opponents can eventually sway the smart money around year six.

But the Skins being a home dog is strange given the relative confidence Vegas seems to have in the Skins being a better overall team than the Eagles. Right now the Redskins are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl, and the Eagles sit at 40-1. Just to win the NFC East, the Redskins are +150, while the Steagles' loser kid brothers are +300. If the Redskins are the favorite to win the division, shouldn't that imply an ability to hold serve at home against a struggling opponent?

The Redskins have no major injuries of note, while both Trent Cole and Jason Peters are doubtful for the Eagles. I suppose the line difference could be due to favorable Eagles matchups, but hasn't the Eagles' big problem thus far been in stopping the run, the Redskins' only offensive strength?

All of this, plus the fact that the line opened at Redskins -1 leads me to believe that the betting public has been hammering the Eagles, and that the public's memory consists of this play on loop, along with a chorus of "the Dream Team can't be THIS bad, can they?" And the one thing I do know about gambling is that the betting public is almost always wrong.

I'm not smart enough to never bet on football, but I am smart enough to know that no matter how hard I try, I can't accurately predict the outcome of football games (#cognitivedissonance). However, if I'm choosing sides on this one, I'll be behind the guys who wrote the opening line and banking on the Skins eking one out the only way they know how. Disappointingly.



**Hehhehheh. Good one Aceman. Original. Funny. (David Brent straightens tie)

The Dream Team

The Redskins are playing the Eagles this week. As we all know, the Eagles went the Snyder route and decided to sign every player in the offseason*. This is a sound strategy that never fails. The Eagles looked so good on paper that part-time quarterback/part-time emotional disaster, Vince Young, called the Eagles a "Dream Team".

When I hear the words "Dream Team", the first team that comes to mind is the 1992 Olympic Basketball team. Their performance in the Olympics was the most patriotic thing I have ever seen. They won every game by an average of 47 points. It was amazing. They proved that America is the best at everything all the time. They were heroes.

Since I don't know anything about any other team, I googled "Eagles" to check out how the "Dream Team" was doing this year. Apparently they are soiling the 1992 Olympic Basketball Team's good name. They are 1-4. Jesus, that's awful.

With this news in hand, I have decided to compare the Eagles' roster to the 1992 Dream Team's roster. I want to see who is the Eagle equivalent to Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, etc. Maybe it will show me where they have gone wrong. I spent hours pouring over both on the rosters. Onto the comparisons:

Michael Jordan: No one

David Robinson: No one

Patrick Ewing: No one

Scottie Pippen: No one

Larry Bird: No one

Karl Malone: No one

John Stockton: No one

Clyde Drexler: No one

Chris Mullin: No one

Charles Barkley: No one

Magic Johnson: No one

Christian Laettner: The Eagles. Like the entire roster....and their stupid coaches.

So there you have it. The Eagles' "Dream Team" consists of a bunch of Christian Laettners, the "wait, why are you on this team again?" guy. That's not a solid foundation.

Does this mean the Redskins will win? Probably not, but it will make the win 100 times better if they do.

*Maybe not accurate.

#$!&@* the Heck: Carlos Rodgers

Really?

Seriously?

Are you #$!&@*ing kidding me?

No, ladies and gentlemen, this is apparently not a joke.  After just 5 games with the San Fransisco 49ers, Carlos Rogers has 3 interceptions, including one for a touchdown.

When it comes to Carlos and Redskins fans, you are in one of two camps.  The camp that thinks he is a terrible player/dunce and the camp where you think he is a solid cover guy that wouldn't have a shot in hell to make the West Canaan High School JV squad at wide receiver.  I'm in that second group.  I always though Carlos did a great job of "shutting down" the majority of the wide outs on the opposing team over the years.  He was a key piece in a defense that was ranked in the top 10 four of the first five years he was in Washington (yes, I left out last year's debacle).  But anyone that has watched at least one Redskins game since he was drafted in 2005 knows that Rodgers is more known for his dance moves then he is for his hands.

Where is the Carlos Rogers Redskins fans all know and love (ok, that's better)?  He's gone for now - Carlos is on pace for 10 picks and 3 TD.  Obviously, he wont keep up that pace (OR WILL HE!?), but its sill more than frustrating to watch him perform this way after seeing him single handedly ruin games for us.*

In the long run though, get yours 'Los.  I wish you the best of luck in San Fran, but seriously... #$!&@* the Heck?!



*the one game that comes to mind is the 20-10 loss at Seattle in the 2005 playoffs.  I found highlights of the game, and I swear Rogers dropped a sure pick-6 as Seattle was driving to extend the lead.  But alas, there is no video evidence of said play.  Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, or not, whatever.

2011 Redskins MVP: Math?

Yesterday was a pretty good day for the Redskins. Not only did both NFC teams that played lose their games, but Rex didn't throw a red zone interception, Greased Up Deaf Safety didn't get beat on a crucial play, and Graham Gano didn't miss a single field goal. (#easybyeweekjokes)

So now the Redskins sit alone on top of the NFC East standings at 3-1 with wins over the Giants and two other NFC teams. Every other team in the NFC East has lost to another NFC team, the Giants and Cowboys still play each other twice, and the Eagles have to turn around a flaming garbage barge in order to make the playoffs.

Now obviously, the Redskins are far from marching into Lambeau and knocking off the Packers in January, and have benefited from an easy schedule to get to 3-1. But anyone who predicted that happening this year is a few rats short of a rat king.

However, the Skins still find themselves in the driver's seat when it comes to the complicated tiebreakers that can often decide who gets into the playoffs at the end of the season. In fact, based on this past weekend and the near-term Redskins schedule, I would argue that if the Redskins win their next two games (vs. Philly and at Carolina, who gets no coffee again) to reach 5-1, they will make the playoffs this year.

You can wipe several thousand babies' asses with written tales of the Redskins' 2nd-half collapses, but hear me out on this one. A 5-1 Redskins team would have five wins against NFC teams. Four of their last ten games are against AFC opponents (and are probably losses), which sucks but affect a lesser tiebreaker. The remaining six games feature three matchups against NFC east opponents, San Francisco at home, and games against Minnesota, and at Seattle, who are a combined 3-7.

It looks at this point that nine wins could take the NFC East, which is even more possible with the Skins holding important tiebreakers (head to head, wins vs. NFC opponents) over inconsistent division rivals.

Winning unconventionally and getting help to squeak into the playoffs are two hallmarks of the post-Gibbs v1.0 Redskins (there's a mural of that in the Redskins Park offices, actually). This season will be no different.

With a favorable early-season schedule, overly-complicated tiebreakers, and a whole lot of help from underachieving division rivals, the Redskins could actually do the thinkable and make the playoffs. Where they will be summarily dispatched by the Lions in embarrassing fashion.

ToBT Season Preview Part Deux: Weeks 6-9 (tee-hee)

Since I was too lazy to make these posts back in August its the Bye Week , we here at ToBT have decided unveil our projections for the remainder of the season. A real blogger would update those projections based on the first four games, NOT SO FAST MY FRIENDS.

A look back at our first 4 game predictions shows that we all went conservative route (I wonder why) at 2-2.  We ended up with more wins than we originally predicted, lets all hope that continues over the next 3 quarters of the season. So without further adieu, here is a look at the next 4 games and how we thought they would shake out back in mid-August:

Week 6: Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles

Jesus Shuttlesworth: WIN, 20-16. Vick just signed a "$100 million" contract, which basically guarantees he misses this game with a concussion. Vince Young does his best but the Skins are somehow 2-1 in the division.

Danny Lightfoot: LOSS, 13-24. The Eagles offense isn't unstoppable like it was the first part of last year. What they are is still better than us. 3 game losing streak. Our reaction, ROAD TRIP!

Rich Tanguy: LOSS, 13-31. White Mike Vick wins over the 65% Philly Crowd (and America!) and we get a little less embarrassed this time. Over/Under on INTs for Rexual Feeling is 5

Week 7: Redskins at Carolina Panthers

Jesus Shuttlesworth: WIN, 24-20. You can cut the apathy in Charlotte with a knife for this one. Ron Rivera looks like a GI Joe character though, so that’s pretty cool

Danny Lightfoot: WIN, 34-3. If there is one game where the Skins should look good, it's this game. Carolina decided to resign all their players and make a run at having the worst record again. Smart.

Rich Tanguy: WIN, 34-17. Happy 30th birthday Rich, we score more than 30 points for the first time in 26 games (!!). Mild boners excitement ensue(s)

Week 8: Redskins at Buffalo Bills

Jesus Shuttlesworth: LOSS, 13-21. Notice the pattern? When the offense is inconsistent and can't score, this team will lose. This will happen a lot. Weirdly, they will score 13 points each time they lose. Hey, I don't make the rules

Danny Lightfoot: WIN, 20-13*. I think Buffalo is a team treading water. We are an OK team building to greatness. SS Shanny sails by throwing chum in the water.

Rich Tanguy: LOSS, 27-28. Last minute FG by Lindell is blown through the uprights by the ghost of Marv Levy. Wait that guy's not dead? We are a year away from not giving away games like this...

Week 9: Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers

Jesus Shuttlesworth: WIN , 31-21. The 49ers are a directionless mess, and will look a lot like last year's Skins. Gore's probably out for this one and Garrison Hurst ain't walking through that door

Danny Lightfoot: WIN, 24-3. Remember when we beat the 49ers 52-17? Yeah, they are still just as bad. At least we can compare stories with their fans about the 1980's while the 49ers are on offense.

Rich Tanguy: WIN, 27-20. SF is pathetic, Coaches like Jim Zorn lose this game, not Big Mike (he was great in blind side)

So there you have it. Halfway through the season, ToBT fam has it like this: Jesus 6-2, Danny 6-2, Rich 5-3. Then again that's taking into account actual results mixed with projected results from August, so in order to properly adjust we'd need to carry the 5, account for the reciprocal, and end up with ...

The Redskins don't completely suck. Hooray. Hip-Hip Hooray.

*Correction. This is the actual score prediction.

Redskins Rummage Sale: So Apparently This is a Thing?

...and with this hat, there is officially too much NFL merchandise. Though I guess if you want to show your Redskins fandom while wearing your gimp outfit at Fantasy Fest in Key West, this hat is for you.

Redskins Report Card: Week 4

When I was a kid in school I thought I knew everything. I would turn in my test with such pride knowing that I was a 100% correct. It wasn't until I received the test back and I saw the giant "F" did I know that what I thought was right, was actually very wrong. (In a related note, I have dedicated my life to this blog, where I can never be wrong.) Without that giant "F", I would have never known I was a useless drain on society. We need to know our limitations. For this reason, I feel that everything in life needs to be graded by an objective observer, and the Redskins are no exception. Since I do not know any objective observers when it comes to the Redskins, there will be no objectivity and I apologize for not being more objective on a free Redskins Blog that no one reads. With that said, here are my grades:

Offense

Grade: C-

It would have been worse if it weren't for Ryan "Pain" Torain. The guy looked like Bo Jackson in his Pro Stars era. Tim Hightower looked unsure and slow and Torain came in and shot new life into the offense. Torain was the running game. He should be the starter until he gets injured against Philly next weekend. I think the Redskins should just put him in Romo's body armor as a precaution.

Since I see the world through burgundy-colored prescription sunglasses, lets start with some good in the passing game. At least Rex Grossman wasn't all terrible. The throw to Santana Moss for the touchdown was a great throw. He deserves credit for that. What else was good....thinking...thinking...oh yeah, Jabar Gaffeny came up with some big third down grabs, so there's that.

Now onto the bad. While the turnovers are an obvious criticism, my main problem was that the Redskins made zero big plays. Maybe Anthony Armstrong being inactive caused that, or maybe it was St. Louis's scheme, but when Torain was ripping off runs we took zero shots down field.

Even with the offense struggling, the game also didn't have to be that close. The Redskins were on the St. Louis 26 in the fourth quarter with a 3rd and 11. Santana Moss ran a short crossing pattern to set up a field goal. If Moss makes that catch, and Gano makes the kick (which is dicey), the Redskins are up 20-0. It didn't happen. Moss let the ball go through his hands and the throw was intercepted.

The Rams' defense is terrible. Rex and the offense could not put the game away and it almost cost them. This game should not have been that close. Rex made it even more interesting with a late interception on a terrible throw. He he didn't see the dropping linebacker for an interception in the Dallas game as well. I wonder if his dwarfish body doesn't allow him to see guys dropping from the line of scrimmage, or it was just a coincidence, which I hope.

I'm nervous about the offense moving forward. I think we should bring back Pepper Rodgers, or maybe Sherm Lewis to help advise Kyle Shanahan.

Defense

Grade: A-

The bottom line is that they played great. They stopped the run and put pressure on Sam Bradford. The Rams had one drive of real consequence.

The only reason why I didn't give them an A was that the Rams dropped a ton of balls, so they didn't help themselves. The Rams also scored on a 3rd and 15. Orakpo missed his assignment was beaten by Steven Jackson. Seriously though, that's two straight weeks we gave up a third an long when we needed it. Things happen and it may just be random, especially since they are number one in third down percentage, but come on. Stop it. You're killin me.

With all that said, the defense played sick. After Grossman threw his second pick, this is how the defense answered:

    1st-10, WAS19 5:30 S. Bradford incomplete pass down the middle

    2nd-10, WAS19 5:25 St. Louis committed 5 yard penalty

    2nd-15, WAS24 5:06 S. Bradford sacked by S. Bowen

    3rd-25, WAS34 4:42 S. Bradford sacked by B. Orakpo

    4th-30, WAS39 4:27 D. Jones punt, no return

Kind of awesome. The Redskins are a top five defense so far, and are tied for the league in sacks. The Redskins' defense looks to be legit this year, as opposed to this last season.

Special Teams

Grade: B

Gano made his field goal attempt and PATs. Banks was invisible, again. Our coverage team played well, other than the penalties. Sav Rocca punted great. That gets you a B.

As for the two 15 yard penalties, I think one was a legitimate penalty the other was a joke. The helmet-to-helmet by Niles Paul was a penalty. I just don't understand the Perry Riley call. (And neither does my hero, Mike Shanahan.) The refs said that Riley didn't give Pettis the opportunity to field the punt. The guy had it in his hands. He caught the punt. Should Riley have waited for him to run up the field? If that's what the officials want, what is the point of a fair catch? According to these refs, there are three options for a punt returner. He can call a fair catch, but he doesn't get the opportunity to advance the ball. He can catch the ball without making a fair catch, and if he gets hit before making a move, he gets to advance the ball 15 yards from a penalty. The third option is that he can catch the ball without making a fair catch, and be allowed to make a move so he has the opportunity to get positive yards. It makes no sense to call a fair catch if those are the three options. It's absurd. The referees were out of control.

Redskins As A Team

Grade: B-

A road win in the NFL is a tough thing, so even though the Redskins played awful on offense, they get a decent grade.

A Terrible Post for a Terrible Game

So many questions following the Redskins' uninspiring win over the Rams. Instead of an upbeat and intelligent post on our 3-1 team, I'm going to pull a "2011 Redskins in the 4th Quarter", and rely on trite and uninspired mechanisms to sleepwalk through what I'm expected to do.

In other words: Pun for everyone!

How much Rex is too much Rex? Is it fair to be Rexually frustrated despite a 3-1 record? Is there anything experts can do about Rex's projectile dysfunction? Can a team that continually participates in hazardous Rex make the playoffs? If the Skins go Beck, can they go back? Or is it true what they say? Is it to risky for the Skins to continue to run a Torain on opponents?

Are puns played out, unimpressive, and lame?
Yes.

FanVision: Problem Solved?

Going to Redskins games has its drawbacks. Sure it's fun to experience bone crushing losses and narrow, undeserved wins with 45 to 80 thousand (depending on the Skins record) of your closest friends, but sometimes that isn't enough. The major issues when going to a game are the traffic, the price, and the fact that it's impossible to get replays, highlights of other games, and fantasy information. You basically pay money to be inconvenienced. The dwindling Redskins season ticket waiting list and the removal of 10 thousand seats have given credence to the argument that it is not worth it to go to games anymore. The home experience has become better than the stadium experience because most homes have the internet and HD TVs. The NFL and the Redskins had to find a way make the stadium experience better.

Apparently the traffic and cost of going to a game couldn't be fixed, but the NFL and the Redskins have found a way to give you all the advantages of home. What's that? No silly, not by using the resources at the stadium more efficiently and smarter to serve the fans' needs. The NFL is allowing you to buy a tiny-screened device called the FanVision. It's only 250 bucks too. I was prepared to pay 251 bucks! What a steal. Our prayers have been answered. Prepare to be impressed:

Say goodbye to missing shoestring catches, game-saving tackles and goal-line stands. With Redskins FanVision you can pull up 10 channels of multiple camera angles, instant replays, NFL RedZone, out-of-market games, player stats and bios, plus fantasy updates, from the palms of your hands, anywhere at the stadium. Welcome to football the way it's meant to be watched. Welcome to the Inside!

I agree. The NFL is meant to be watched on a TV screen.......... Hold on, I just got a phone call from the Redskins asking me to upgrade to the club level...again.

Where were we? Oh yeah, it's frustrating being at games and wondering, "Are there any other NFL games going on? Did Rex Grossman fumble that ball? Who was Rex throwing to on that interception? What are Rex's stats, and how do they compare to Curtis Painter's stats? Why is Curtis Painter sitting on my fantasy bench behind Rex Grossman? Why are Rex Grossman and Curtis Painter on my fantasy team?" (In all seriousness, I just found out who Curtis Painter was 10 minutes ago. He's apparently a real person. FanVision would have told me his bio. Now I just look like an idiot. I need FanVision so bad.)

Anyway, instead of putting replays after every play on an HD jumbotron, you can stream them onto your personal, Gameboy sized screen. Instead of updating you on every game during stoppages of play, the Redskins will blast ads at you instead. If you love the Redzone Channel or highlights, don't bother finding them on the last bubble TVs in the world that are located around the stadium. They will be right there on your tiny FanVision. My season tickets and parking pass that I paid for have made me in outsider. It stinks. The only way to the "inside" is with FanVision, or ironically, sitting in my house during an away game.

There you go. Everything that you miss by paying money to be at the game is at your fingertips for a nominal fee. I appreciate that the NFL and the Redskins have listened to the fans once again. By the way, can someone loan me 250 bucks? I spent all my disposable income on season tickets.